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** 	TITLE: d1_obs_pred_rec.do
**
**	PROJECT: IGNITE
** 
**  PURPOSE: Figure I: Observed vs. Predicted Recidivism, Before and After IGNITE

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		set sortseed 13
use "$output_data/prediction.dta", clear

preserve
keep if return_3m>=0&booking_year>=2016&ym_booked < 749

//Bin Scatter Plots		
binscatter return_3m return_3m_hat, by(D_ignite_proxy) ///
	ytitle("Observed three-month recidivism rate") ///
	xtitle("Predicted three-month recidivism rate") ///
	legend(pos(6) order(1 "Pre-IGNITE" 2 "Post-IGNITE")) n(15) ///
	mc(gs0 gs8) lc(gs0 gs8) msymbol(Dh Oh) ///
	xlab(.1(.1).5) ylab(.05(.05).35) ysize(4) xsize(5.5)
	graph export "$figures/figure1_recid_pred.pdf", replace
	graph export "$figures/figure1_recid_pred.tif",  width(1650) height(1200) replace //300 dpi

restore
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	